Lula elected president of Brazil

Lula elected president of Brazil

Brazil is the latest Latin American country to elect a left-wing president, joining Chile, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Honduras and Argentina who have all favoured progressive parties over the political right. Leaders from around the world were quick to congratulate Lula on his victory, showing global solidarity and support following Bolsonaro’s past claims that the election could be rigged. Joe Biden was clear and unwavering in his statement, describing the election as “free, fair, and credible”.

Now the election and campaigning is done, what can we expect from a Lula presidency?

Democracy

Bolsonaro has spent the last four years undermining democratic institutions in Brazil – “he is a pro torture, pro dictatorship, former Army captain who has openly celebrated Brazil’s dictatorship and expressed admiration for South American dictators like Augusto Pinochet,” says Tom. He has cast doubt on electronic voting, and made it near impossible to tackle disinformation by limiting the power of tech companies to moderate their sites in the country. Bolsonaro has also been known to lash out the Brazilian Supreme Court and Supreme Electoral Tribunal because of the many investigations levelled at him and his sons, and has also been accused of filling the prosecutor’s office and the police with allies and loyalists

Brazil is a relatively young democracy, emerging from a brutal military dictatorship in 1985. In comparison to most similar democracies, the country has fewer and weaker checks and balances to stop it from returning to those dark days. “I think that the biggest positive consequence of this result will be that Brazil will return within a few months to some kind of democratic normalcy,” says Tom.

Environment

Four more years of Bolsonaro would have had devastating environmental consequences, not just for Brazil but for the whole world. Two billion trees have been burned or cut down during his presidency – an area the size of greater London was lost in the first six months of 2022 alone. His policies on deforestation and illegal logging have turned the Amazon rainforest into a net emitter.

“Lula has said that he will immediately start cracking down down on illegal mining and logging, and he will try to revive the Amazon Fund, which is this big international fund by which governments like Norway and Germany contribute to conservation efforts here,” Tom says. These pledges, alongside Lula’s previous record of radically reducing deforestation, indicate that massive swathes of the Amazon will be saved and protected. Analysis conducted for Carbon Brief indicates that Lula’s victory could cut Amazon deforestation by 89% over the next decade.

These policies could have life-saving consequences for journalists, environmental activists, and indigenous groups, Tom says: “Hopefully this will stop the many invasions of indigenous territories by gold miners and other gangs, like the ones who were seemingly responsible for the murder of a friend and colleague, Dom Phillips.”

The economy

Lula has promised to bring back the economic prosperity that was seen under his presidency between 2003 and 2010, when tens of millions of Brazilians were brought into the middle class. According to a World Bank report, the middle class in Brazil grew by 50% between 2003 and 2009. Replicating this success will not be easy in a global economy that is heading towards recession, however.

While Lula’s pledges of a more progressive tax regime, ending the spending cap on public expenditure, an increase in the minimum wage and boosting social welfare will help alleviate income inequality, there has been very little detail or costing. The commodities that allowed Lula to implement many policies like these during his previous tenure is long ove, and while it’s clear that while his policies may be popular, Lula faces many obstacles in implementing them.

Civil rights

Tom sent me a voice note following Lula’s victory speech – you can hear that the celebrations are in full swing, with rapturous cheering in the background. “[Lula] looked extremely tired and extremely emotional,” Tom says, “The main message of his speech was reunifying the country, he said he’s going to govern the 250 million Brazilians in the country, not just the ones that voted for him. He said he’s going to wage a relentless fight against racism and discrimination.” Lula is viewed as a champion of Brazil’s indigenous population and has called homophobia a “perverse disease”. However, in a public letter to Brazilian Evangelicals, Lula said that he was personally opposed to abortion and that he would leave that issue with congress.

Will there be a coup?

As of yet, there has been silence from Bolsonaro and his team. The country and the world is nervously looking to see if he makes good on his threats of refusing to give up power, after months of baselessly alleging that Brazil’s electronic voting system is plagued by fraud and claiming that there is a conspiracy between the courts and media against his far-right movement. It’s a message that has clearly taken hold. “I’ve talked to supporters of his over the last few weeks who said that they are absolutely convinced that he did win the first round, which he actually lost by 6 million votes,” says Tom.

It’s unlikely that Bolsonaro will quietly slink off into the night. “I suspect that Bolsonaro is going to remain a big figure in far-right politics for many years, he’s got a movement, he’s got a name, he’s got two prominent politician sons in Congress. He’s probably not going anywhere,” Tom says. Nevertheless, he will wake up tomorrow a significantly diminished figure, whose destructive vision for the country has ultimately been rejected.