Meanwhile, major investment banks have sharply lowered there Target Prices (TP) for OGC. Goldman Sachs Australia on February 25 lowered it’s 12m TP from A$4.40 to A$3.40, by 23%. JP Morgan on February 24 cut it’s TP from A$3.50 to A$3.10.

The reason in both cases is the same: the large uncertainty regarding the resumption of operations and the possibility that the one-year grace period will pass without resolution and result in OceanaGold’s possible loss of the Didipio mine.

When foreigners invested in Philippines mines in the 1990s and early 2000s, they behaved little differently than the imperial powers of old. And old habits die slowly.

The statements and pronouncements by OceanaGold’s management on their ability to overcome hurdles to FTAA renewal sound a bit much like the Rudyard Kipling days to inspire confidence.

Is there potential upside to OceanaGold’s stock? There is: the possibility of a friendly or hostile takeover of its Philippines properties by a more savvy operator more in tune with the policies pursued by the President’s Office and the demands of the local community.